Market Perspective 12-12-08

It appears that the stock market is basing for a nice upturn.  If we bounce off of the current downtrendline at about 855 on the S&P500, we should see a nice rally into 2009, maybe even up to the 200 day moving average … something we are a ways away from now.

After that, it could be a retest of the lows we saw in November.  The economy is just now getting into the full throws of the recession that is upon us and it is not going away anytime soon.  Continuing to print money and throwing it at any problem that comes along is going to start to come back to haunt us as well.

I see that the automaker (auto-faker?) bailout died in the Senate.  Must not have been enough pork in there for the homeboys to pass it.  My guess is that the UAW is in deep engine grease here and is going to feel the heat of decades of greed and inefficiencies when Congress makes more demands.  Then some bailout money will happen.

It dawned on me early today that the powers that be would likely make them squirm some more nd then give them the money anyway.  The rest of the traders must have figured that out too.  GM opened today around $2.70, dropping significantly in overnight trading.  I figured that it was going to rebound but I took too long to think about it.  By the time I decided I might buy a few 1000 shares, it was already up $1.

Could have made 40% profit in about 30 minutes.  THAT would have been nice!